After the offensive: what local governance must deliver next

Recovered districts are often described as a security success. The harder question is what civilians meet in the first weeks: a court that sits, a clinic that opens, a police post that does not become another checkpoint for rent.

This commentary argues that sequencing matters more than slogans. Security without a visible local administration invites the previous armed order back in through taxation and dispute resolution. Administration without protection invites spoiling. The Institute’s field notes from recent offensives show the same gap repeating: military units move, political appointments lag, and communities fill the vacuum themselves.

Policymakers should treat the first 90 days as a governance operation, not an afterthought. That means naming who collects taxes, who hears disputes, and who answers when a clinic is looted — in writing, in Somali, and in the district, not only in Mogadishu.